Comments on: Gates Says IPod Success Won’t Last

By: Robert Befus

Robert Befus — Fri, 13 May 2005 17:47:10 +0000

Thanks for your thoughts on this Tom – Couple of years ago at CTIA Wireless there was a lot of talk about WiFi replacing cell service. Although WiFi has made some progress, it has a long way to go with many obstacles. I think successful portable digital communication devices will need to be able to access both for some time to come.

By: Tom K

Tom K — Fri, 13 May 2005 16:49:29 +0000

I think over the years VOIP will displace cell phones. With UPCs like OQO and Flipstart you have the capabilities of good laptops in small mobile packages. As wifi becomes more seamless (I tend to think that wifi will be everywhere and people will pay for it like a utility) then you will not need cell technology.

Today it was announced that MSFT and TMTA are in some sort of agreement. TMTA offers the technology that allows for a smaller form factor and more efficient energy usage, especially as the chips get smaller and require passive cooling rather than fans.

By: Robert Befus

Robert Befus — Fri, 13 May 2005 12:22:42 +0000

Good points Tom – my guess is that within 3 to 5 years we will see powerful portable computing/communication devices that will be capable of displaying rich media content, multiband communications, decent computing (for web, email etc.) plenty of storage and more. I think people will ultimately want it all in one device. (Apple is already beginning to partner with at least one mobile phone manufacturer)

By: tom bunzel

tom bunzel — Fri, 13 May 2005 01:39:43 +0000

I was surprised to find that a friend (focus group of one) who had invested heavily in a Treo phone had just purchased an iPod shuffle. Asking him about it I learned that the shuffle could also store 1 GB of data.

My question about your and Gates’ statements re the phone would be one relating to price — the multi function phone/PDAs are still very pricey, and then storage — which is at a premium with phones. I suspect that cheap storage and music will have inexpensive MP3 players still in the market, with folks lugging a cell phone along for good measure.

I would love to have one device but the PDA never appealed to me because after trying WIndows CE, I lost interest in an almost Windows device and favored a light notebook over a PDA.

Even with hype about WIMAX I can’t see watching much video on a PDA when I can use a SONY or Fujitsu screen without compromise.

Certainly if phone manufacturers can increase storage and bring prices down, that will be the ultimate winner in the ubiquitous digital appliance arena. But I think MP3 players have a few years before that happens.